Does Blockchain & Web3 Equity (thesis ETFs) actually work?

DEAD

No edge left once tested on a fair footing.

The claim

The Blockchain & Web3 Equity thesis is worth a dedicated fund — Thematic ETF industry

What we did

Tested against SPY over each fund's own life, net of fee, survivorship-free, 2016–2026 (Sharadar fund data; excess vs SPY is window-matched, so fair).

The result

Result: -10.5 median excess vs SPY %/yr (net of fee)

26 funds, 19% dead, 36% beat SPY

Verdict

Only 36% of these funds beat just buying SPY over their own life; the median trailed by 10.5%/yr. 19% are already dead. The theme was sold hard; the funds trailed the index and many were buried.

What the test did and did not do

survivorship-free universe
net of real costs
point-in-time data
checked for look-ahead
tested out of sample

Almost nobody publishing a backtest says which of these they did. We list the ones we failed as well as the ones we passed.

Tested 2026-06-23. The same treatment, applied to every other system, is on the test bench.

← AI & Big Data (thesis ETFs) All findings Cannabis (thesis ETFs) →

Written with AI assistance from our own test database. The numbers are computed, not composed.
General market commentary for education, not personalised investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical. Trading carries a real risk of loss.