The Test Bench › gate
Does FedHike<50%(long) actually work?
DEADNo edge left once tested on a fair footing.
The claim
Tells you when to be in the market vs. step aside — Various / folklore
What we did
Tested against Buy & hold SPY, same window, 2012–2026 (fair common window).
The result
Result: -0.045 dSharpe (vs buy-hold)
Sharpe 0.89, maxDD -34%, in-market 79% of days
The numbers
| Annualised return | 12.8% |
|---|---|
| Sharpe ratio | 0.89 |
| Worst drawdown | -33.72% |
| Time in market | 79.18% |
| Sharpe vs benchmark | -0.05 |
Verdict
Costs you risk-adjusted return vs. just holding. The legend is bigger than the signal.
What the test did and did not do
- point-in-time data
- checked for look-ahead
- net of real costs
- tested out of sample
Almost nobody publishing a backtest says which of these they did. We list the ones we failed as well as the ones we passed.
Tested 2026-06-23. The same treatment, applied to every other system, is on the test bench.
Written with AI assistance from our own test database. The numbers are computed, not composed.
General market commentary for education, not personalised investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical. Trading carries a real risk of loss.