The Test Bench › gate

Does IG_OAS<60dMA actually work?

MARGINAL

Real but small -- not worth what it costs to run.

The claim

Tells you when to be in the market vs. step aside — Various / folklore

What we did

Tested against Buy & hold SPY, same window, 2012–2026 (fair common window).

The result

Result: 0.044 dSharpe (vs buy-hold)

Sharpe 0.98, maxDD -19%, in-market 63% of days

The numbers

Annualised return	9.39%
Sharpe ratio	0.98
Worst drawdown	-19.11%
Time in market	62.51%
Sharpe vs benchmark	0.04

Verdict

Barely moves the needle once tested fairly. Famous, not powerful.

What the test did and did not do

point-in-time data
checked for look-ahead
net of real costs
tested out of sample

Almost nobody publishing a backtest says which of these they did. We list the ones we failed as well as the ones we passed.

Tested 2026-06-23. The same treatment, applied to every other system, is on the test bench.

← Higher Highs & Higher Lows (Dow Theory) All findings Intermarket Ratios (8-pair basket) →

Written with AI assistance from our own test database. The numbers are computed, not composed.
General market commentary for education, not personalised investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical. Trading carries a real risk of loss.