The Test Bench › index_rule
Does Total US market (VTI) actually work?
REALA measurable edge that survived the checks we ran.
The claim
Total US market is the index to own — What people actually buy
What we did
Tested against Cap-weight S&P 500, buy & hold, 2004-2026, buy & hold, adjusted total-return.
The result
Result: 10.9 %/yr buy & hold (2004-2026)
+10.9%/yr, Sharpe 0.64, worst drawdown -55% (2008 -37%, 2022 -20%)
Verdict
'Own the entire US market' turns out to be ~the same as owning the S&P 500 (10.9%/yr, Sharpe 0.64) -- large caps dominate the total market, so the two are nearly identical. A fine, honest default; just don't expect it to differ from the S&P.
What the test did and did not do
- survivorship-free universe
- net of real costs
- tested out of sample
- point-in-time data
- checked for look-ahead
Almost nobody publishing a backtest says which of these they did. We list the ones we failed as well as the ones we passed.
Tested 2026-06-23. The same treatment, applied to every other system, is on the test bench.
Written with AI assistance from our own test database. The numbers are computed, not composed.
General market commentary for education, not personalised investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical. Trading carries a real risk of loss.