The Test Bench › thesis_etf
Does Cloud & Software (thesis ETFs) actually work?
DEADNo edge left once tested on a fair footing.
The claim
The Cloud & Software thesis is worth a dedicated fund — Thematic ETF industry
What we did
Tested against SPY over each fund's own life, net of fee, survivorship-free, 2016–2026 (Sharadar fund data; excess vs SPY is window-matched, so fair).
The result
Result: -4.4 median excess vs SPY %/yr (net of fee)
11 funds, 27% dead, 22% beat SPY
Verdict
Only 22% of these funds beat just buying SPY over their own life; the median trailed by 4.4%/yr. 27% are already dead. The theme was sold hard; the funds trailed the index and many were buried.
What the test did and did not do
- survivorship-free universe
- net of real costs
- point-in-time data
- checked for look-ahead
- tested out of sample
Almost nobody publishing a backtest says which of these they did. We list the ones we failed as well as the ones we passed.
Tested 2026-06-23. The same treatment, applied to every other system, is on the test bench.
Written with AI assistance from our own test database. The numbers are computed, not composed.
General market commentary for education, not personalised investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical. Trading carries a real risk of loss.