The Test Bench › thesis_etf
Does Crypto Price (BTC/ETH) (thesis ETFs) actually work?
NO VERDICTTested, but the result is not clean enough to call.
The claim
The Crypto Price (BTC/ETH) thesis is worth a dedicated fund — Thematic ETF industry
What we did
Tested against SPY over each fund's own life, net of fee, survivorship-free, 2016–2026 (Sharadar fund data; excess vs SPY is window-matched, so fair).
The result
Result: 76 funds, 13% dead
76 funds, 13% dead
Verdict
76 funds tracked, 13% already dead. This is price exposure, not an equity thesis — we don't grade it against the stock index. Tracked for the graveyard.
What the test did and did not do
- survivorship-free universe
- net of real costs
- point-in-time data
- checked for look-ahead
- tested out of sample
Almost nobody publishing a backtest says which of these they did. We list the ones we failed as well as the ones we passed.
Tested 2026-06-23. The same treatment, applied to every other system, is on the test bench.
Written with AI assistance from our own test database. The numbers are computed, not composed.
General market commentary for education, not personalised investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical. Trading carries a real risk of loss.