Does Golden Butterfly (Portfolio Charts) actually work?

REAL

A measurable edge that survived the checks we ran.

The claim

20% each US stocks / small-cap value / short bonds / long bonds / gold = better all-weather — 'Tyler' / Portfolio Charts

What we did

Tested against Buy & hold SPY / honest reconstruction.

The result

Result: +7.8%/yr, Sharpe 0.85, maxDD -21%, 2008 -7%, 2022 -14%

+7.8%/yr, Sharpe 0.85, maxDD -21%, 2008 -7%, 2022 -14%

Verdict

The best-built of the all-weather lot across BOTH crises -- gold and short bonds cushioned 2008 and 2022 better than the bond-heavy rivals, for the highest return of the preservation set (+7.8%/yr). Solid, dependable; still well below stocks on long-run return.

What the test did and did not do

net of real costs
tested out of sample
point-in-time data
checked for look-ahead

Almost nobody publishing a backtest says which of these they did. We list the ones we failed as well as the ones we passed.

Tested 2026-06-23. The same treatment, applied to every other system, is on the test bench.

← Global / Dual Momentum (GEM) All findings HFEA ('Excellent Adventure', 3x leveraged) →

Written with AI assistance from our own test database. The numbers are computed, not composed.
General market commentary for education, not personalised investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical. Trading carries a real risk of loss.